In a chilling assessment, the Global Taiwan Institute cautions that China’s People’s Liberation Army is gearing up for potentially massive operations near Taiwan, with 2027 looming as a deadline for invasion readiness. This comes amid a flurry of aggressive patrols and exercises that blur the line between military posturing and enforcement actions.
GTI’s John Dotson detailed how PLA activities in Taiwan’s southern approaches have grown bolder, incorporating Coast Guard vessels to lend a veneer of legality to encroachments. ‘This narrative allows China to portray operations as routine policing,’ Dotson explained during a recent panel discussion in Washington focused on 2026 Taiwan policy.
Senior Fellow Ann Kovalevski warned that 2026 represents the final window for the PLA to attain full-spectrum capabilities against Taiwan. Citing Taipei Times, she noted expectations of significant PRC military enhancements this year, urging Taiwan and allies to bolster defenses urgently. Echoing Admiral Philip Davidson’s 2021 testimony, experts see 2027 as a cross-strait flashpoint.
China’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ exemplifies the mounting pressure, with incursions often pinned on Taiwan’s leadership or American arms deals. Yet, GTI stresses these are long-planned, not reactive. Taiwan’s security apparatus reported a barrage of hybrid threats this month: cyber intrusions, 19,000+ propaganda posts, and hacking waves targeting doubts over self-defense and U.S. commitment.
Legislative findings spotlighted 799 anomalous accounts fueling misinformation against President William Lai and military prowess. As Beijing tests boundaries without full war, the think tank calls for strategic foresight to deter escalation. The world cannot afford miscalculation in this volatile theater, where power dynamics could shift dramatically by decade’s end.
