A leading US think tank has issued a stark warning: renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan is a significant possibility in 2026. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) identifies escalating terrorist activity as the primary catalyst for potential military escalation between these two nuclear-armed South Asian nations. This outlook follows a tense period in May, where a lethal terror attack on civilians in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam region by Pakistan-sponsored militants led to a decisive Indian military response. India launched ‘Operation Sindoor,’ dismantling terror launch pads across the border and eliminating over 100 operatives from the JeM and LeT groups. Pakistan’s subsequent drone attacks were thwarted by Indian air defense systems. Amidst these tensions, a Pakistani military overture for a ceasefire was accepted by India, temporarily de-escalating the situation. The CFR report also highlights the volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan border, predicting potential conflict driven by persistent cross-border militant attacks, a concern that has already materialized in recent skirmishes.
