After a 17-year absence, Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is set to return to Dhaka. His arrival, just weeks before the national elections, is a pivotal moment for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the country’s political landscape. This homecoming is particularly significant for India, given the current political climate. With the Awami League ineligible to compete and Khaleda Zia unwell, Bangladesh is facing a period of heightened political tension.
The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, has reportedly struggled to control radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami. These groups, often perceived as having links to Pakistan’s ISI, have seen a resurgence in political influence after being previously banned. Recent polls indicate a strong showing for the BNP, though Jamaat remains a formidable contender. Gains by Jamaat’s student wing in Dhaka University elections have also sparked concerns in New Delhi.
India is closely observing these developments. Despite past complexities, New Delhi views the BNP as a potentially more democratic and liberal force compared to the current interim administration. A BNP victory could lead to greater political stability in Bangladesh and a potential recalibration of its foreign policy. Under the previous Awami League government, Bangladesh maintained close ties with India while keeping a distance from China and Pakistan. However, relations with Pakistan have strengthened under the interim government, impacting India’s influence.
Tarique Rahman has previously voiced criticism of the Yunus government, particularly concerning its foreign policy. His stated refusal to form an alliance with Jamaat for the upcoming elections is viewed favorably by India. Rahman has also articulated a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy approach, aiming to prioritize national interests above regional alignments.
Rahman, who has led the BNP remotely from London since 2008, is anticipated to land in Dhaka around midday on Thursday. The BNP is planning an extensive welcome event, including a significant roadshow from the airport and a large public rally. He is expected to contest the Bogura-6 (Sadar) electoral seat.
Security measures are at their highest, with restricted access at Dhaka airport and special arrangements to facilitate the arrival of supporters. This return is being hailed by senior BNP figures as a potentially game-changing political event. Rahman’s past legal challenges, including convictions that the BNP claims were politically motivated, and his time in London for medical treatment, are part of his complex political background. India will continue to monitor the unfolding situation closely.
