A recent Pentagon assessment indicates that China has deployed over 100 DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across three newly constructed silo fields situated near the Mongolian border. These advanced, solid-fuel missiles are designed for rapid deployment and possess the capability to evade contemporary air defense systems. This strategic positioning underscores Beijing’s significant and ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
Previously, Pentagon reports had confirmed the existence of these silo facilities. However, this latest analysis offers the first concrete estimate of the number of missiles now operational in these locations. Projections suggest China’s nuclear warhead count, estimated at around 600 in 2024, could exceed 1,000 by the end of the decade. Despite this build-up, Beijing maintains its nuclear policy adheres to a “No First Use” doctrine, focusing on minimum deterrence.
The DF-31, also known by its NATO designation CSS-10, represents China’s third-generation road-mobile ICBM. First introduced in 2006, this three-stage, solid-fuel missile boasts impressive range capabilities. While the basic variant can strike targets between 7,000 and 8,000 kilometers away, the DF-31A and DF-31AG versions extend this reach to an estimated 11,000 to 11,700 kilometers, potentially covering vast portions of the United States. These missiles are approximately 13-15 meters long, have a 2-meter diameter, and a launch weight of about 42,000 kilograms. Their solid-fuel design allows for swift launches with minimal preparation.
Equipped with a single nuclear warhead of up to 1 megaton, some DF-31 variants can also carry Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), enhancing their ability to strike multiple targets with a single launch. Guided by inertial navigation systems, these missiles achieve a high degree of accuracy, with errors estimated between 100 and 300 meters. Their deployment flexibility includes both road-mobile transporter erector launchers and the newly built silos, increasing survivability and operational range.
The integration of off-road mobility and advanced penetration aids, such as decoy warheads, makes the DF-31 a formidable asset. Experts note that silo deployment significantly bolsters protection against potential first strikes, making China’s nuclear forces more resilient. This expansion presents a considerable strategic challenge to global stability, with the DF-31 family capable of targeting major areas across the United States, Europe, and Asia. As international powers closely monitor these developments, Beijing has not yet issued an official statement on the new deployments, prompting analysts to warn of significant implications for regional and global security.
